As the Premier League resumes at the start of April, we officially enter “The Run-In”—the final stretch of the season where every result is crucial. While Liverpool remain favorites to lift the trophy, there are still major battles across the table, from securing European spots to avoiding relegation.
Using the Fixture Difficulty Rating (FDR), we analyze which teams have the easiest and toughest run-ins over the final nine matchweeks.
Understanding the Fixture Difficulty Rating (FDR)
The FDR is a Fantasy Premier League tool that assigns a difficulty rating to each fixture, ranging from 1 (easy) to 5 (hard). It considers factors like opponent strength and home/away advantage, giving us an idea of how challenging each team’s remaining fixtures are.
Based on this metric, Nottingham Forest, Manchester City, and Wolves have the easiest schedules, while Everton face the toughest challenge.
Average FDR of Remaining Fixtures
| Team | Position | Total FDR | Average FDR per Match |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest | 3 | 24 | 2.67 |
| Man City | 5 | 24 | 2.67 |
| Wolves | 17 | 24 | 2.67 |
| Newcastle* | 6 | 28 | 2.80 |
| Liverpool | 1 | 26 | 2.89 |
| Arsenal | 2 | 26 | 2.89 |
| Brighton | 7 | 26 | 2.89 |
| Bournemouth | 10 | 26 | 2.89 |
| West Ham | 16 | 26 | 2.89 |
| Ipswich | 18 | 26 | 2.89 |
| Aston Villa | 9 | 27 | 3.00 |
| Spurs | 14 | 27 | 3.00 |
| Southampton | 20 | 27 | 3.00 |
| Leicester | 19 | 28 | 3.11 |
| Chelsea | 4 | 29 | 3.22 |
| Man Utd | 13 | 29 | 3.22 |
| Crystal Palace* | 12 | 33 | 3.30 |
| Fulham | 8 | 30 | 3.33 |
| Brentford | 11 | 31 | 3.44 |
| Everton | 15 | 32 | 3.56 |
*Newcastle and Crystal Palace have 10 matches left, while all other teams have nine.
Man City and Forest in a Strong Position
Both Manchester City (2.67) and Nottingham Forest (2.67) have the joint-easiest schedules, which significantly boosts their hopes for Champions League football.
City’s most challenging fixtures are Manchester United away and Fulham away, while the rest seem manageable. Guardiola’s side have a chance to build momentum in the title race.
Forest also have a favorable run, with tough away trips to Tottenham and Aston Villa, but several winnable home matches that could see them secure a top-six finish.
Chelsea in Danger of Missing the Top Four
Chelsea’s tough fixture list (3.22) means their top-four hopes are under serious threat. Cole Palmer’s side have taken just six points from their last five matches, and their final four games—against Liverpool, Newcastle, Man United, and Forest—are a nightmare run-in.
With teams like Aston Villa and Brighton having easier schedules, Chelsea’s place in next season’s Champions League is far from guaranteed.
Wolves Could Escape the Relegation Battle
Currently sitting nine points above the drop zone, Wolves look set to pull further away, given their easy fixture list (2.67).
By contrast, Ipswich (2.89), Leicester (3.11), and Southampton (3.00) all have brutal schedules, including multiple clashes against top-six sides. If the promoted clubs don’t pick up points quickly, their Premier League return could be short-lived.
Man United and Spurs Set for a Tough Finish
With both clubs juggling Europa League and Premier League commitments, the FDR suggests Manchester United (3.22) and Spurs (3.00) will struggle to break into the top six.
United, in particular, are at risk of recording their lowest Premier League points total if they can’t find form. Their fixture list includes trips to Chelsea, Liverpool, and Aston Villa, making their European hopes look bleak.
Final Verdict: What to Expect in the Run-In
- Title race: Liverpool, Arsenal, and City remain locked in a battle, but City’s easy run-in could give them the edge.
- Top-four fight: Chelsea’s tough schedule means Villa and Brighton have a golden chance to steal their Champions League spot.
- Relegation scrap: Wolves should be safe, but Ipswich, Leicester, and Southampton face a brutal fight for survival.
- European battle: Spurs, United, and Fulham’s tough schedules make it difficult for them to break into the top six.
With just nine weeks to go, every fixture will feel like a cup final. Who will survive the chaos of “The Run-In”? Stay tuned for all the drama!