Manchester City have made slow starts before, but this one feels different. A team built on rhythm, precision and inevitability has found itself chasing the pack early in the 2025/26 Premier League season. Yet, as history has shown, writing off Pep Guardiola’s side in October is a mistake.
City’s Stuttering Start
Through seven league matches, Manchester City sit just behind the leaders, with 13 points and a goal difference that still speaks of dominance: around 2.13 goals scored per match and only 0.75 conceded. It’s solid, not spectacular — by their own sky-high standards.
Their early defeats exposed a lack of control in midfield transitions, something Guardiola himself acknowledged. The loss of Rodri’s influence in key games disrupted the familiar City rhythm, but the return of form from Erling Haaland and Phil Foden has steadied the ship. A composed 2-0 win over Everton earlier this month — capped by a Haaland brace — reminded everyone that City’s gears still grind opponents down when it clicks.
The Data Behind the Dip
Opta’s predictive models tell a nuanced story. In 10,000 season simulations run by the Opta Supercomputer, City still emerge as one of the top two most likely champions, though their title probability dropped from preseason highs near 50% to the 30–35% range after early stumbles.
Opta’s underlying metrics still love City’s process:
- Expected Goals (xG): 2.15 per match (2nd best in the league).
- Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.78 (also 2nd best).
- Shot differential: +9.1 per match.
In other words, the structure is working — the finishing and defensive lapses simply need to tighten up. For comparison, in their treble-winning 2022/23 campaign, City averaged similar xG numbers at this stage, before going on a devastating 12-game winning streak after Christmas.
What’s Working in Their Favour
- Pep’s late-season machine – Guardiola’s sides are notorious for hitting top gear after the winter break. The tactical rotations that seem chaotic now often settle into a ruthless rhythm by February.
- Squad depth – No other club can rotate with the same quality. Even with injuries, City’s bench reads like a Champions League semi-final XI.
- Haaland’s scoring curve – After a quiet September, the Norwegian striker has rediscovered his touch. When Haaland scores in consecutive games, City almost never lose.
- Defensive platform – Despite criticism, City still boast one of the best defensive records in the Premier League. Only Arsenal have conceded fewer goals this season.
The Challenges Ahead
City’s biggest opponent might be themselves. The early complacency and tactical experimentation that define their autumns have already cost points. Arsenal and Liverpool both look sharper and hungrier, while Tottenham’s resurgence under Thomas Frank adds pressure from below.
According to SoccerStats, City’s remaining away fixtures have a higher average opponent points-per-game than their home schedule — meaning tougher road tests are coming. Dropped points in those could stretch the gap before Christmas.
Guardiola’s Confidence
Speaking before their upcoming European fixture, Guardiola told reporters he remains “incredibly confident” in his squad’s recovery. His message was vintage Pep — controlled defiance mixed with faith in process. “We’ve been here before,” he said. “The players know what to do. It’s just rhythm.”
That rhythm has carried City to four Premier League titles in the last five seasons. They’ve been down before and found a way to climb.
The Road to Recovery
For City to reclaim control of the Premier League title race, they need to:
- Convert dominance into early goals to prevent chasing games.
- Keep their injury list short, especially in midfield.
- Regain consistency from creative hubs like Foden, Bernardo Silva, and De Bruyne (once fully fit).
- Hit their trademark 2.3+ points-per-game run by December — the signal of an oncoming storm.
The Verdict: Never Count City Out
The numbers might wobble, but the logic remains. City’s underlying performance data and Opta metrics still paint them as the league’s strongest team on paper. The gap is recoverable, the fixtures manageable, and the squad too seasoned to panic.
Prediction: Manchester City remain the most likely Premier League winners if they rediscover their post-January form. Opta’s models may have trimmed their probability, but the league’s history says you never bet against Guardiola’s machine when it finds rhythm.